By David Gordon, associate editor
Wisconsin is “a blue state with purple hues,” according to University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire political scientist Geoff Peterson.
He characterized the state that way Thursday evening as part of his virtual presentation to the Eau Claire County Democratic Party’s monthly meeting, noting that the last time before 2016 that the state favored a Republican presidential candidate was the 1984 election won by Ronald Reagan. Subsequent results through 2012 were close but in the Democratic column, much like the 2020 election.
Peterson chairs UW-EC’s Political Science department and is also on the faculty of its American Indian studies program.
Five explanations offered
He offered five different explanations that – taken together – could help explain the growing urban-rural split between the two major political parties. These start with the large increase in urban younger voters who favor the Democrats while the much smaller rural population ages and becomes more Republican – a approach that recasts the party split along age rather than geographic lines.
Rural voters increasingly are increasingly moving to the Republican party because they feel Democrats “have lost focus on the issues that matter to them,” he said.
A second theory, and a touchy one, posits “racial resentment” as a key factor in the minds of white voters. Peterson said this falls short of being outright racism; rather, it’s a feeling that nonwhite groups “haven’t earned” the attention and care that the government shows toward them and this is often seen as an official bias favoring nonwhites.
Increased racial resentment since the ‘80s
Racial resentment increased greatly from the 1980s to the 2016 and 2020 elections, he said. It was the second most accurate predictor of support for Donald Trump, behind only party affiliation, and “racial resentment so closely mirroring partisanship” is a new phenomenon, Peterson added
Anxiety about economic issues – or the perception of them – provide another explanation, though data are hard to interpret on this topic, Peterson said. Somewhat the same situation exists in regard to the so-called “big issue explanation,” simply because such major concerns as abortion and race have been in the political mix for decades and how they affect elections hasn’t really changed, he said.
A final explanation holds that both political parties adapt as issues change. As one party shifts its position and moves into a new area, the other party has to react or risk losing votes, Peterson said. As an example, he referred to the argument by Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Missouri) that the GOP has become “the party of the rural working class.”
There is at least a grain of truth in each of these inter-related explanations, although data are lacking to provide strong support for the “economic anxiety” theory, Peterson said.
‘. . . like nailing jello to a wall’
He said that, for both parties, maintaining and trying to increase a coalition with differing interests and priorities is “like nailing jello to a wall.” The key is to figure out where a coalition can be expanded without “squishing” some elements out of it.
He said Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin) has it right with her emphasis on the need for massive investment in rural broadband capability, along with support for other issues that won’t fracture the coalition she has put together for support. One of those other issues is rural health care, which is both a major concern and one that’s related to the broadband question through the potential growth of telemedicine, Peterson said.
Other observations from Peterson, all during the question period that followed his talk, included these:
- The decreasing number of independent “swing” voters will inevitably have an effect on party political strategies.
- Wisconsin is “the whitest state in the Midwest,” but it’s less white than it has been “and that’s a (trend) that will continue here like everywhere else.”
- Trump did better among Hispanic voters in 2020 than he did in 2016 and than Mitt Romney did in 2012.
- Although Trump still had a majority among white male voters, especially those between 30 and 60, his margin shrank noticeably from 2016 to 2020.
- “Convincing people to vote is easier than getting them to change their vote,” so an effective strategy is to “find the communities that right now have the lowest rate of turnout” and work to increase that turnout.
- In such campaign efforts, “there are never too many people on the ground.”
- Gerrymandered districts are a major problem that needs a “push for some sort of nonpartisan redistricting process” such as the commission that Iowa uses, and he doesn’t care which party that push comes from.
If you liked this story, please remember there were costs involved in producing it. The CVPost has no paywall, and we rely on our readers to help us meet the costs of reporting community news and information you often won’t find elsewhere.
Annual CVPost membership is $50, but contributions of any amount also matter. Please consider helping community supported journalism survive by clicking the Donate button below.