College students’ responses to a nationwide study in August revealed a polarized student body that’s unified in its skepticism of the electoral system, the presidential candidates and the idea that the government works to improve their lives.
Nonetheless, most of them are still largely intent on casting a ballot this year.
The John S. and James L. Knight Foundation sponsored the study as a follow-up to its earlier survey of 12,000 persistent nonvoters aimed at exploring the underlying challenges of electoral participation. That earlier study showed that 18-to-24-year-old eligible voters, many of whom were registered or had voted before, were far less interested in voting for president even than chronic non-voters.
But, the Knight Foundation noted, those results came before COVID-19 upended the college experience and created the potential for a disrupted 2020 election. They also were collected before the police killing of George Floyd triggered protests and a national discussion of systemic racism that sharpened partisan divides.
The foundation commissioned College Pulse to undertake a follow-up national poll of college student views on voting and the 2020 election, to gauge their responses amid the COVID-19 pandemic and the increased political divide. This study was conducted from Aug. 9 to 12, with a sample of 4,000 full-time students currently enrolled in four-year degree programs.
They were surveyed via the College Pulse mobile app and web portal, and the results were weighted to be nationally representative.
Key takeaways from the August study include:
- Most students—led by college women and Democrats—say they are “absolutely certain” they will vote this year.
About seven in 10 (71%) students said they were absolutely certain they will vote in the upcoming election, with female students expressing greater certainty than their male counterparts by a margin of 10 points. Students who identify as Democrats were the most likely to be absolutely certain they will vote (81%), followed by Republicans (74%) and Independents (63%).
- Students lack confidence in the legitimacy of the 2020 election.
Nearly half (49%) said it won’t be fair and open, and a majority (55%) said it will not be administered well. A full 81% said special interest groups have more influence over election outcomes than voters.
- Students are likely to doubt the results of the presidential election.
Half said that problems at polling places – such as long lines or broken voting machines – would lead them to have major doubts about the fairness of the election.
Other potential causes for doubt were evidence of foreign interference (48%); the election winner losing the popular vote (46%); low voter turnout (46%) or if most voters cast ballots by mail (31%). Nearly three-quarters of the respondents (74%) said they will have major or minor doubts about the fairness of the election if it takes weeks to count.
- Students plan to vote for Joe Biden by a wide margin, but enthusiasm is low for both major candidates and their parties.
A full 70% say they will vote for Biden, versus only 18% for President Donald Trump. But only 49% have a favorable impression of Biden, versus 51% unfavorable; for Trump, those numbers are 19% and 81%, respectively. When it comes to the two major parties, male college students view both about equally negatively, while female students express much more positive views of the Democratic Party.
- Just over half of college students plan to vote by mail, with large partisan splits.
The majority (63%) of Democratic students say they would prefer to vote by mail or absentee, compared to 31% of Republican students; 39% of all students plan to vote in person.
The report, College Students, Voting and the COVID-19 Election, can be accessed here.
It provides details on these and other issues related to the 2020 election and political participation among the rising generation of college-educated Americans, including breakout data by gender, party affiliation and race.
— written by David Gordon, from information provided by the Knight Foundation